Anticipating the Future
Saturday, January 26th, 2008I tend to be skeptical of futurists, but I enjoyed Andy Hines‘ keynote at the SLA Leadership Summit. He began by talking about the techniques employed by futurists, and applications for their work. He noted that futurists do not predict the future, but give a “sense of the possibilities” and indicators that will tell us where we’re headed. Hines ended his talk by noting some values trends. Here are a few of them with my comments:
Personalization and co-creation. Hines pointed out that there are “identity purchases” and “whatever purchases”. I think “just Google it” is the information-seeking equivalent of a whatever purchase. It’s what we turn to when we need something quickly. I know I do - there is almost always a recent search query in the Google search box in my browser. But for some kinds of information, when accuracy or depth is critical, we turn to other, more specialized sources.
Simplicity and “decomplexificationizing”. Again, people will read a manual or take training, but only when there is a big payoff. Is being able to find a book in your library catalog a big payoff?
Ethical consumption. Hines talked about the “stampede of the ‘footprints’”, and noted that ethical consumption is complex and often contradictory. I noted this in the discussions about SLA going green. Sure, it would be great if everyone brought their own coffee mug and carried it with them during the conference and we didn’t have to throw away all those paper cups. But it might mean that all the vendors give away travel mugs instead of keychains, and harried conference attendees leave them behind where they get thrown away.
Time pressure. Hines said that the average workweek has actually gone down, which brought forth audible surprise from the audience. We aren’t working harder, Hines said, but we are filling our free time, and we are sleeping less. Hines believes sleep is “on the rising curve” and I think he’s right. Last week I listened to an NPR story about how people brag about not sleeping, and the rising awareness about the importance of sleep for productivity and health.
Transparency. Hines says “we all live in glass houses” now. The library world has picked up on this - Library Journal has a Transparent Library column.
Restructuring of work. Hines says we are moving to smaller core organizations with more partners and outsourcing. I couldn’t help but wonder (and I don’t think I was alone) if librarians and other information professionals are part of what is being outsourced (or worse). During the Q&A, an audience member asked Hines if his company employs information professionals. His reply was that, “In a sense, we are all information professionals,” and that his company doesn’t have an information department. You would think that information would be an “identity purchase” for a futurist…
More coverage of Hines’ talk at Library Buzz, Blogging Section of SLA-IT, and SLA Information Technology Division Blog.




